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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, though experts believe PVV stands little chance of joining the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a multi-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is currently slightly leading in surveys and is projected to secure between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

However, PVV's popularity has declined since the previous election, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in the summer amid disagreements concerning his controversial anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Forecasts

Following a election period focused on topics such as migration, medical expenses, and the nation's severe housing crisis, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, expected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, predicted to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to more than double its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with several experiencing significant losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

Under the proportional Dutch system, securing just 0.67% of the national vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Among the two dozen political groups contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – as many as 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of division means that no one party is ever likely to secure a majority, and Holland has been governed by multi-party governments – typically composed of four parties in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the biggest group yet is shut out of power. But, critics and analysts argue that first place does not guarantee government participation and that any governing alliance with a majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the election result is hard to predict and coalition talks may require months, analysts indicate that after the most radical administration in its recent history, the future government is expected to be a inclusive alliance led by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate exit poll is anticipated shortly after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will test potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in the house before taking office.